How we score a call

What gets graded

Two kinds of thing, both from the AI council's morning output: maplegamma_analysis.json. First, the day's market call — the market_pulse.regime line, bullish, bearish or neutral. Second, the direction of up to five trade ideas published in the same file that morning.

That file is subscriber data. What is graded is not the number on the public dashboard: the 0–10 conviction score there, and the direction word beside it, come from a different file built by a separate model — nothing scores them, and this rule does not cover them.

Against what, and over how long

The market call is measured against the S&P 500 index (^GSPC): the index close on the day of the call versus the previous trading day's close.

Each trade idea is measured against the instrument it names — the close of that stock or ETF on the day versus its own previous close. A call to go long a given name is settled by that name, never by the index.

The window is a single trading day. A call with a longer horizon is not scored.

What counts as a hit

The day's move sets the outcome:

• Up more than 0.1% — the day was bullish.
• Down more than 0.1% — the day was bearish.
• Anything in between — the day was flat. That is the scratch band.

The market call is correct when the day moved in the direction it named. A trade idea is correct if its direction matched the sign of its instrument's move — long for up, short for down.

A move that lands inside the scratch band settles nothing at all — not even a neutral call made on it. Such a call is left out of the score rather than counted as a hit or a miss: a flat day is neither.

What the score means

The score is simply the share of scored calls that were correct. Every scored call counts once, whatever confidence was attached to it — a high-conviction call and a marginal one are worth exactly the same to the score.

What is not scored

A call is scored only where there is a close to settle it. Days the market did not trade — weekends and holidays — settle nothing, and neither does a day whose close is unavailable. Under this rule those days are left out of the score entirely, never settled against a substitute measure.

A call whose move lands inside the scratch band, and a call with a horizon longer than one day, are left out for the same reason: there is nothing to settle. A day the council produced no call is left out too — a missing call is not recorded as a neutral one, and counts as neither a hit nor a miss.